Translating my thoughts into words.
One of the podcasts I listen to regularly from the BBC is called the NOW Show. It is a semi-regular news comedy program (think “Daily Show” on a weekly basis; NOW= News Of the Week). This week they had a piece about the Jesus Tomb special. Very special. I have put the clip here. Be sure to listen for the Beatles reference.
And don’t forget, you can subscribe to my (very) occasional podcasts through iTunes via this link.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download (754.8KB)
Carl Bialik examines the way numbers are used, and abused.
March 8, 2007, 10:08 pm
The Lost Tomb of Jesus?
My column this week explores the controversy over an estimate of the probability that a tomb found in Jerusalem contains the remains of the family of Jesus of Nazareth. Makers of a television documentary about the tomb asked a statistician to make the calculation, and presented his finding — that there is just a one in 600 chance that the tomb doesn’t contain Jesus’ family. I examine the tenuous assumptions behind that calculation, and the awkward position of a researcher working outside the usual bounds of peer review. (Read the column.)
I still get lost in the maze of figures (what can I say? Calculus II beat me) but I think this is a good look at the issues to hand. Fundamentally it does come down to something I do understand: initially assumptions form conclusions.
“As you pile on more assumptions, you’re building a house of cards,” says Keith Devlin, a Stanford mathematician and NPR’s “Math Guy.” (Scientific American also challenged the calculation on its Web site.)
No one is questioning Prof. Feuerverger’s statistical credentials, or his calculation given the assumptions made. For each of the names believed to be appropriate for Jesus or an associate, Prof. Feuerverger calculated the probability it would arise by chance, then adjusted for other factors, such as the number of tombs in Jerusalem. But his conclusion is only as reliable as the assumptions that went into it.
See the Scientific American article referenced above.
Craig Evans has posted an updated guest blog at Deinde on the Talpiot tomb. It is the best concise summary of the problems I have read so far and the update even includes reference to Dr. Kirkland’s interpretation of the chevron and circle.
The Tomb of Jesus and Family? Second Thoughts
Craig A. Evans
Acadia Divinity CollegeThe new interpretation of the Talpiot Tomb in Jerusalem that has been put forth by Simcha Jacobovici and James Cameron is very doubtful. The tomb was uncovered by a construction crew in 1980 and before Yosef Gat, Amos Kloner, and colleagues could excavate it properly it was looted and vandalized. In the tomb were ten ossuaries (or bone boxes), six with inscriptions. Some seventeen skeletons were in the ossuaries and another eighteen or so were lying on niches (or shelves) or scattered about on the floor. Many of the bones were broken or crushed into powder. Coins, pottery, and other artifacts were apparently stolen by looters.
Read it all at Deinde!
I stumbled across this today. I nice bit of work showing a far more likely explanation of the
marks on the tomb that Jacobovici has been “documenting.” This is from a blog that is new to me, EVIDENCE by R. Kirk Kilpatrick, Ph.D.
In a previous post I mentioned the possibility that the symbols that are being used in such a sensational way on the official “Jesus Tomb” website (http://www.jesusfamilytomb.com/) –just as they were used in the “documentary” — might not be early Christian symbols at all.
On the coins above (Herod Phillip) a “chevron and circle” pattern is clearly visible as a depiction of the facade of the Nicanor gate of the Temple of God in Jerusalem. The Nicanor gate marked the end of a pilgrimage. The last fifteen steps are still marked by the “Psalms of Ascent,” or better, “the Psalms of the ascending ones.” The entrance to the tomb also marked the end of a pilgrimage.
(Emphasis is his.) This makes a lot of sense to me. It does not identify who was interred in the tomb, but it does strongly suggest not the Knights Templar, but rather those for whom Jerusalem and the Temple (or even death) was the goal of their journey.
(Via EVIDENCE.)
A lot of good stuff there so be sure to read it and follow his links. Jesus/Talpiot Tomb Thursday Roundup
